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Children of the Law of Accelerating Returns
Friday, 05 February 2010 13:11

The New York Times reports that the “ever-accelerating pace of technological change may be minting a series of mini-generation gaps, with each group of children uniquely influenced by the tech tools available in their formative stages of development.” Will this gap narrow even more as the pace of technological innovations quickens – as we approach "The Singularity?"

Whether or not you agree with Ray Kurzweil’s vision of the Singularity, the evidence that the pace of technological innovation continues to accelerate is hard to deny. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view,” Kurzweil famously asserts. “So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.”

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