"We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology."
Carl Sagan
| Children of the Law of Accelerating Returns |
| Friday, 05 February 2010 13:11 |
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Whether or not you agree with Ray Kurzweil’s vision of the Singularity, the evidence that the pace of technological innovation continues to accelerate is hard to deny. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view,” Kurzweil famously asserts. “So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.” |
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